I developed my initial reaction to the October 7th attacks through a critical dialogue with a blog post written by Gilbert Achcar. Achcar explained the historical context that prompted the attacks but also criticized Hamas’s fundamentalist fanaticism and the potentially severe consequences their terrorist adventure might have on ordinary Palestinians. I agreed with the thrust of his position but in my own (on-going) analysis I tried to steer clear of the issue of the historical background to this latest phase of the conflict, not only because most everyone on the Left was focusing upon it, but, more importantly, because I think that the conflict will never be solved if both sides keep appealing to history to justify their failed tactics and strategies.

My two major conclusions at the time were:

“The Netanyahu government is composed of open racists who
have long dreamed of a pretext to crush all Palestinian national liberation struggle if not expel
the Arab population of Israel and the occupied territories outright. Shockingly, Hamas has given
them this pretext. All oppressed people have the right to resist oppression and to choose the
means by which that resistance is pursued. But it is the most lunatic, abject, political stupidity to
launch an invasion of a state with vastly superior military means under the assumption that a
spectacular assault by a few hundred guerrillas will be a crushing blow.”

and:

“Attacking military targets is one thing, gunning down unarmed teenagers attending an all night rave is indeed barbaric. Anyone who believes that such tactics can advance a liberatory cause is both politically deluded and morally bankrupt: ends do not justify any means whatsoever. Liberation and vengeance are distinct. Vengeance is born from hatred, justified or not. Liberation is born from the need to live freely: free to create democratic institutions that give voice to the collective goals of people, but also free from ancient hatreds that imprison the emotions and imaginations of people and poison their relationships with each other.” (See “Love is not the Answer, but it is a Start.“)

The year that has passed since October 7th 2023 has not given me any reason to revise those initial arguments. However, it has given me more reasons to believe that unless movements on both sides of the violence emerge and convince people of the need to free their thinking from attachment to past atrocities, the present problems cannot be solved and a future peace never constructed. Impossible as it might sound, Palestinians and Israelis have to sit down and start talking about what happens today, for the sake of tomorrow. That means no one at the table invokes the Holocaust or the Nakba, to say nothing of God’s will. The problems are human-made and can only be solved by human creative intelligence focusing on the way in which the current cycles of attack and counterattack are undermining everyone’s most basic interest in the social peace necessary for the secure enjoyment of life. Policies which manifestly undermine the interests that they are intended to achieve are materially irrational. Rational people, regardless of which side they are on, should be able to recognize this fact.

However, “utopian” would seem to be too mild a criticism of this argument. Materially irrational or not, everyone is, for the moment, locked into the thinking that generates revenge cycles. Ayatollah Khameini argued that Iran’s missile attack at the end of September was “legal, legitimate, and rational.” I doubt that it was legal, perhaps it was legitimate by the rules of the existing game, but it was certainly not rational, given Israel’s (in alliance with the United States) capacity for disproportionate response. Following the strike, and entirely predictably, Israel assured the world that it would respond in kind. Netanyahu argued that Israel had a “duty” to respond to bombs with bombs. If politicians have duties towards their citizens they would be, first and foremost, duties to ensure that the conditions of life-security and life-development are met. Those conditions have deteriorated for Israelis since October 7th. If Netanhayu is serious about duties, and Khameini is serious about rationality, and if the different Palestinian factions and their allies are serious about making political progress towards some sort of political solution, radically different strategies and tactics are needed.

Again, “utopian” seems too mild a criticism of this argument. The problem is not only leadership– although that remains a major problem. The problem is that the general population on both sides of the conflict seems to have given up hope that peaceful co-existence is possible. The recent “Pulse” Israeli-Palestinian poll, jointly conducted by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University found, unsurprisingly, that the two camps were more polarized than ever. Almost identical numbers viewed their people as the primary victims of the conflict (84% of Jewish Israelis and 83 % of Palestinians) and there is an almost total absence of trust between the communities (94% of Israelis and 86% of Palestinians say the other side cannot be trusted). The reason why? 66% of Jewish Israelis and 61% of Palestinians believe the other side wants to eradicate them.

But is the situation totally hopeless? There do seem to be constructive political attitudes, at least on the Palestinian side. Notwithstanding the almost complete destruction of Gaza and repeated attacks across the West Bank, more Palestinians support a two state solution (40%) than a single state in which the Jewish population would enjoy limited rights (33). Implicit in this finding is the sort of constructive thinking that can free people from revenge cycles. Those who prefer the two state solution view Palestinian self-determination as a creative, forward-looking project and not an opportunity to punish Jewish Israelis by depriving them of the rights that Palestinians have been denied. They understand that ‘resistance” is not an end in itself. Ultimately, political struggles for national self-determination are about creating an institutional structure in which people exercize collective control over the resources and institutions that good lives require. Resistance movements must ultimately justify themselves on the basis of positive results for the lives of the people they claim tor present. Rhapsodizing about heroism and martyrdom as hellfire rains down from F35’s ensures only that the pile of bodies and rubble will grow higher.

Unfortunately, as support for a two state solution rises in Palestine, it has declined among Jewish Israelis. Twice as many Jewish Israelis support annexation of the West Bank without equal rights for Palestinians (42%), as those who support a two-state solution, (21%). That figure represents a 13-point decline from 2022 and the lowest since the early 1990s. 14% of Israeli Jews support a single democratic state.

If one wanted to view those results with rose coloured glasses firmly on, one could say that it is encouraging that even a quarter of Jewish Israeli’s have not abandoned hope in favour of a policy of expulsion and eradication. But to believe that they can win the political battle within Israel would seem naive in the extreme. Half a million Israelis demonstrated in favour of a negotiated ceasefire for the sake ensuring the release of the remaining hostages. Instead, Netanyahu delivered an invasion of Lebanon. The first step towards calming this conflict as a precondition for renewed negotiations towards a political solution is going to have to be taken by the one actor outside the region who could halt the fighting tomorrow: the United States.

While US policy seems rudderless and ineffective, people should recall a few months ago, prior to the invasion of Rafah, when Biden halted delivery of 2000 pound bombs and demanded that Israel vastly increase the quantity of aid allowed into Gaza. The result was immediate. Israel complied with US demands. It is also true that they soon resumed ignoring US concerns about the invasion of Rafah, but the lesson I take from that incident is that credible US threats to halt military assistance get Israel’s attention. Hence, a credible threat to suspend all military aid would force Israel to the bargaining table, first for the sake of a ceasefire and then– if consistent and credible pressure were maintained– toward a political solution to decades of violence and dispossession. Without US leadership the conflict can continue indefinitely, to the detriment, primarily, of Palestinians and their allies. Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas can effectively repel Israeli airstrikes and Iran, although it is too large to conquer or subdue, could be seriously damaged by joint Israeli and US strikes. I doubt that the restive population of Iran is interested in the further erosion of their living standards for the sake of Khameini’s foreign adventures.

Everyone concerned, therefore, has a reason to climb down and start to learn how to work together. As it is with people so too with peoples: the free development of each is the precondition of the free development of all.