On Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, between 45 and 50 per cent of eligible Americans who choose to vote will cast their ballot for Donald Trump. The 2024 election will be the third time running that up to half of American voters decide that a man who has a civil conviction for sexual assault on his record, is facing a panoply of criminal charges stemming from his first term, has made open threats to use the power of the Office of President to revenge himself on his enemies, who has vowed to use the military to forcibly expel immigrants who entered the country illegally, and gives free play to his boorish and bullying personality (but now expressed more erratically than in his first two campaigns) is the better choice to lead their nation. His cross class alliance of the ultra-wealthy, the least educated segment of the white working class, evangelical Christians, and rural voters retains its political integrity despite objective differences of material interest (tax cuts for the rich, for example, deprive working class communities of the resources they need to invest in the public services they require). The solidity of this coalition induces exasperation amongst Trump’s opponents: recall Hilary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” quip and Biden’s exasperated reference to Trump voters as “garbage.“

There are, no doubt, some deplorable figures surrounding Trump and much that comes out of his mouth is garbage. And yet, his attraction, to those for whom he is politically attractive, has not been diminished by the tireless efforts of journalists to expose his lies, lawyers to expose his crimes, and his opponents to warn that at best a second Trump term would result in the most partisan authoritarian Presidency in American history and at worst, the fascist destruction of American democratic institutions.

They have reason to worry. I have already noted his threats to his opponents, but these might be dismissed as bluster. More troublesome is the historical similarity between the cross class alliance he has constructed and the social basis of European fascism in the 1920s and 30s. European fascism was spawned by deep socio-economic crises and was designed to save capitalism by destroying working class opposition. However, it succeeded by advancing an organicist view of the state which deflected attention away from the political economic causes of the crisis. The ruling class mobilized workers for a fascist solution by constructing demonized “internal enemies” (paradigmatically, in Germany, Jews and Communists). The projection of the causes of crisis onto ethnically and politically stigmatized scapegoats proved effective in bringing working class supporters on board for a project that soon liquidated their traditional economic and political defence mechanisms: social democratic and communist parties and trade unions. Having destroyed the organized opposition, the fascist parties were free to remake the nations they now ruled- Spain, Italy, Germany– into totalitarian states ruled by overt violence.

While the class basis of Trump’s electoral alliance bears some similarities to the social foundations of fascism, and his rhetoric is certainly authoritarian and fascistic (most notably, his constant references to illegal immigrants as a racialized enemy within), and some of his supporters manifest the fanaticism of the SA– armed gangs that the Nazis employed in their early days to intimidate their enemies– there are important differences. While his most extreme supporters are fanatical, they lack a coherent institutional structure. More importantly, Trump does not command an ultradisciplined paramilitary force akin to the SS. Whereas European fascist parties could count on the complicity of the armed forces, all the available evidence suggests that the senior commanders of the US Armed forces and its officer corps are deeply opposed to Trump and would almost certainly refuse to obey orders to deploy against fellow citizens. There is also no evidence that rank and file soldiers are itching to mutiny and become an armed phalanx of the MAGA movement. Moreover, the American ruling class, like American society generally, is deeply split, unlike the ruling classes in Europe in the 20s and 30s, which were more solidly behind a fascist solution. As Micheal Roberto reminds us, it would be wrong to conflate fascism as an extreme solution to the structural crisis of capitalism with the form that it took in the 1920s and 30s, but I think it would also be wrong to ignore the dissimilarities and much deeper wells of opposition that Trump would face were he to actually try to abolish the formal rule of law, criminalize political opponents, and destroy the institutions of the democratic state (weak as they might already be). (see Michael Joseph Roberto, The Coming of the American Behemoth)

But what interests me here is less precise social and political analysis of the class base of Trump’s movement and more the reasons why it is so impervious to the astounding pile of evidence that can be marshaled against his record and program. Least effective of all has been the attempt- which those who make the charge think of as their ace in the hole– of branding him a fascist. True, there is a sizeable internal Republican opposition to Trump, but the tens of millions of people who are going to vote for him are not in the least dissuaded because of media and academic criticism of Trump’s authoritarian, and perhaps fascist tendencies.

That none of his committed supporters are moved to rethink their support by credible arguments that he is a fascist is cause for serious concern. But does it mean that MAGA is an incipient fascist movement just waiting, like the Nazi’s, for a Bundestag fire to seize power and install one-party, totalitarian rule? There might be elements within that movement and amongst Trump’s more virulent advisors who would implement something like this strategy (Project 2025 ), but I am not convinced that America is on a 1933-knife edge. As I noted above, I think that there is simply too much organized opposition to Trump and too much of a mass basis of resistance to any overt moves to systematically dismantle the constitutional order for him to succeed, even if he were to try.

But I suspect– and of course, I could be wrong– that, just like Trump’s first term, his bark would be worse than his bite, and that his supporters, save the most rabid, also think that way. Like people laughing at a politically incorrect joke they take some of his more extreme bluster with a grain of salt, making his most vociferous critics sound like prigs with no sense of humour. People might be naive when they dismiss Trump’s threats, but I think that it is true that critics of Trump still often misunderstand his tactics: he makes outrageous claims (for example, that Haitian migrants were eating dogs and cats in Springfield, Ohio), not because he thinks that they are true, but because he knows it will make his opponents apoplectic, and he can then use their reaction to make the real move that he wants to make. The real — and politically effective– move that Trump wants to make is to paint his opponents as people who do not care about, are actively opposed to, the material interests of the “ordinary American.” So, he will say something for which there is no evidence and, when the absence of evidence is pointed out (as it was, in real time, about the cats and dogs, during the debate) he pivots. He does not admit the falsity of what he says but sows uncertainty- during the debate he shrugged and said “we’ll find out.” But this act is all prelude- what he really wants is for his opponents to rise in defence of the community that he attacks. He wants them to do this so that he can say to his constituency: “see, they care more about “them” than they do you.” He thereby creates a wedge between those who Trump identifies as ‘real” Americans (not exclusively white, it is important to add– “real” Americans for Trump are people who were born in America and vote for Trump) and migrants, whom he portrays as invaders.

But why does his tactic work? Because, like all effective political tactics, it connects with a real element of people’s experience, but it abstracts that element from its historical background causes and proposes a solution which, when analyzed, appears laughably (or damnably) simplistic and unworkable, but is read by supporters as a genuine response to their concerns. During the 2016 election Trump mobilized his base by threatening to ban Muslims from visiting the US and promising to build The Wall all along the US-Mexico border. The Muslim ban did not survive court challenges and The Wall stalled due to its extreme costs and logistical challenges (bark, bite), but they both served Trump’s political aims. His aims were to exploit fears about the link between Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism (a link which is real) and people’s belief that illegal immigrants unfairly jump the queue and deprive needy American of resources for which they pay taxes. The Muslim issue is less front and centre in 2024, but the immigration issue remains Trump’s most important mobilizing tactic. It would not work unless it addressed real concerns felt by ordinary people– and not only whites’ concerns, as Trump’s critics are too soon to charge. Black communities are also affected and have expressed frustration that while their needs have been ignored for decades, resources are found almost overnight for migrants.

By careful abstraction, isolation from historical causes, and sloganeered simplicity of solution political realities are constructed out of material reality. Critics have to understand the process of construction and why it is effective: life is short, people suffer when their needs are unmet, and they want them satisfied now. The further down the socio-economic ladder one goes, the more unmet needs there are, making a large subset of those groups fertile ground for recruiting to politicians like Trump. The fact is, Democrats (and social democratic parties in Europe, many of whom have lost badly to far right movements in recent elections) have failed to deliver meaningful socio-economic benefits to their working class constituencies. They are portrayed, and not without reason, as run by effete elites who are afraid to get their hands dirty “doing an Honest day’s work” and despise those who do. They are not interested in criticisms of Trump as a fascist because they are not interested in political theory but the integrity of their communities. They feel that their ways of life are derided and, like people who feel disrespected, lash out defensively. They end up at odds with communities (immigrant workers) with whom they have more in common than the ruling class false saviors for whom they vote. That underlying commonality needs to be the starting point of effective response to the Trump’s of the world.

Instead of demonizing Trump supporters as garbage, Democrats have to start by taking their concerns seriously. It is true, sadly, that some Trump supporters do seem to be beyond the pale: fed a steady diet of on-line right-wing conspiracy theory and closed to any confrontation with counter-evidence, they perhaps cannot be convinced by anything other than a smashing political defeat, and even then, they might still not change their minds. I do not know what per centage of Trump supporters fall into this category, but I believe it is a small minority. The rest (of his working class voters) are motivated by real concerns: there are legitimate questions about fairness when it comes to the distribution of housing and other resources to migrant communities when millions of Americans are unhoused or poorly housed. Climate change is a reality, of that there can be no rational doubt, but, if you are a worker in an industry that is threatened by the necessary energy transition, you might well feel personally threatened and search for a simplistic solution: it is a hoax, and Trump will dispel it.

Effective political argument must begin from the opponent’s premises. As Socrates understood, what matters initially in a political and ethical argument is not whether what the interlocutor believes is true, but that they believe it. Of course, Socrates not only failed to convince his interlocutors, he was sent to the grave for his troubles. It may prove to be the case that too many Trump supporters put themselves beyond the reach of critical political reason, but opponents must try to get underneath the fear, bluster, and anger and encourage Trump’s working class base start to consider problems in a more comprehensive light; to ask themselves if they really believe that a selfish, narcissistic, failed property developer and self-promoter understands their problems and has any concrete plan to solve them?